OVERVIEW

A tropical cyclone is expected to form in the western Caribbean Sea in the next 24 hours before quickly intensifying and making landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday evening. Invest 97L, which is likely to become named storm Helene, is still a disorganized area of convection off the coast of Nicaragua. Nevertheless, this storm may create significant impacts for the Atlanta region by late Thursday through Friday. There remains a good amount of uncertainty with the exact path and intensity, but some solutions show significant impacts well inland. Once formed, Helene should rapidly intensify and move towards landfall quickly, limiting preparation time. 

SYNOPSIS

Big picture wise, an upper-level trough that is present over the southern plains will play an important role in the steering of 97L. This trough may spin off a closed upper-level low that will interact with 97L. The Fujiwhara effect, when two vortices rotate around a common center, may come into play in this situation. While an upper trough would normally steer 97L to the northeast, this closed low may pull it more to the northwest. Still, neither 97l nor the closed low have formed. As such, there remains a good bit of uncertainty on the track. Intensity guidance shows some divergence, but many solutions show this intensifying to major hurricane status by late Wednesday evening. Further, some solutions show the storm retaining its intensity well-inland. This could mean damaging winds for our region in addition to heavy rain.

PRIMARY HAZARDS

• Damaging Wind
• Heavy Rain
• Isolated Tornadoes

NEXT STEPS

• The Georgia Tech Police Department Office of Emergency Management will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as necessary.
• Follow the GT Office of Emergency Management on X (formerly twitter) @gtpdalerts.
• For the latest forecast information, please visit the National Weather Service.